#15: Electorial College Preview

THREAD BEGAN: October 27th, 2004

BEN: After a good day of bitter back and forth, i felt i should offer up some unsolicited non-partisan things of where things stand state by state. i am trying to avoid writing a paper for school and fill the void of no keeler report until sunday. i have been looking at this shit really about 45 min of every 1 hr i am up now, so here goes
Lets Assume that we start at 274-264 Bush, keeping every 2000 state the same, except giving Kerry New Hampshire which he will likely win. - There are really only 4 genuine toss ups now - Ohio, New Mexico, Wisconisn and Iowa
"The Big 3"
Ohio (20), Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21). Kerry seems to have solidfied things in PA despite Bush and Karl Rove's obsession with it. He needs this state - there is really no way he will win if he loses it. Kerry will win PA. Same goes for Bush in Florida - he has to have it. He will win Florida I believe - Kerry can not pull out of the state for obvious reasons, but Bush seems to have regained control there. Ohio is obviously the wild card here. Right now, it really is a coin flip and seems to change daily. If Bush wins the state, he will be re-elected. If Kerry wins it, that is where things get dicey. If you put a gun to my head and i had to pick the winner in OH, I would say Bush, but I would say there is a 49.99999999999999% chance I would then end up dead on Nov 3.
"The Trifecta"
Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10). These are all states won by Gore in 00 - Iowa and Wisconsin barely, and MN by about 2.4% I beleive. Bush is trending very will in Iowa and Wisconsin, and he seems to be surging in Iowa. Wisconsin has closed, but there is slight edge to Bush still. Minnesota - who knows. Every Republican there swears they are going to win the state, but I am not sold on it. If Bush does indeed lose Ohio, he can offset it by winning two of these three. I think he will win one of them - but winning two might be a tall order. Also, MN and WI have up to day of vote voter registration - that will benefit the dems
The Other One
New Mexico (5) - This is also a state that would seem to be headed to Bush, but I also believe it is a coin toss at this time, 50.00001% chance for Kerry. NM is a tough state to poll with all of the poor Hispanics - alot of the polls showing Bush up there have not been polling in Spanish, which hurts Kerry's numbers. (this is also a reason to trust Mason-Dixon in FL - they do poll in Spanish for those who need it - while most others dont in Florida)
There are rumblings still about Republicans winning Oregon, Michigan or New Hampshire as Democrats still think they can win in West Virginia, Arkansas or Nevada. All of these seem unlikely, but if one of them happened I wouldnt be stunned. The DemocrRATs (a little 2000 campaign humor for you) are better positoned for a surpirse from these states
I doubt anyone read this far, but if so, thanks, almost done........SO
IF BUSH WINS OHIO AND FLORIDA - ITS OVER
IF KERRY WINS OHIO AND FLORIDA - ITS OVER
(really of Bush loses FL regardless of OH he is done)
IF BUSH WINS FLORIDA BUT LOSES OHIO - and this scenario is looking more likely every day
he needs 15 votes from: Minnesota (10) New Mexico (5) Iowa (7) Wisconsin (10)
IF KERRY LOSES OHIO AND FLORIDA, WELL HE IS ALMOST DONE....
unless he can somehow take 6 votes from: (assuming he wins NH) Nevada (5) Arkansas (6) West Virginia (5)
some gay state will probably fuck up my whole calculations.....but what i have put here seems to be the concensus.....it is very very close, but Bush has a slightly easier road to 269 for him, 270 for Kerry if things stay as they are now in the national polls, but this could change tomorrow
-the poll master